Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FIL prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-01-19 3.763637 4.088099 4.445156 4.870670 5.368609 5.938837 6.650200
2025-01-26 3.364263 3.797999 4.308609 4.966164 5.809602 6.884503 8.411795
2025-02-02 3.169616 3.678619 4.308304 5.169411 6.360737 8.030190 10.723860
2025-02-09 2.999653 3.554123 4.266487 5.288244 6.793956 9.090130 13.284621
2025-02-16 2.803366 3.369206 4.115635 5.223670 6.935635 9.726920 15.400027
2025-02-23 2.648920 3.222252 3.995878 5.179433 7.088195 10.404293 17.923282
2025-03-02 2.515124 3.090555 3.881999 5.124703 7.206580 11.042492 20.747311
2025-03-09 2.399867 2.974895 3.779131 5.071512 7.313259 11.681534 24.053786
2025-03-16 2.310496 2.888641 3.710607 5.062342 7.491902 12.516710 28.739655
2025-03-23 2.255347 2.846635 3.702932 5.148846 7.858656 13.889807 37.204661
2025-03-30 2.160177 2.740878 3.590513 5.046754 7.842671 14.346586 42.715831
2025-04-06 2.070615 2.638695 3.476983 4.931906 7.783486 14.679371 48.436768
2025-04-13 1.971068 2.518877 3.331714 4.754014 7.579738 14.593956 51.916798
2025-04-20 1.938654 2.497167 3.338976 4.846959 7.964554 16.343509 75.899598
2025-04-27 1.929329 2.509045 3.399637 5.042144 8.615371 19.321180 148.451743
2025-05-04 1.903942 2.494740 3.416198 5.156117 9.105881 22.152510 354.058336
2025-05-11 1.847797 2.430203 3.345430 5.094197 9.152037 23.284695 728.463856
2025-05-18 1.798912 2.374942 3.287174 5.051766 9.241929 24.706374 3623.583515
2025-05-25 1.751407 2.319958 3.226488 4.999256 9.297225 26.044446 NaN
2025-06-01 1.707034 2.268259 3.168835 4.948209 9.349085 27.450933 NaN
2025-06-08 1.672215 2.230421 3.133132 4.939407 9.519136 29.730748 NaN
2025-06-15 1.653901 2.218157 3.141039 5.022422 9.974540 34.449740 NaN
2025-06-22 1.608646 2.160879 3.067055 4.924443 9.867939 35.180197 NaN